Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in Gaza But Faces Challenges With Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an upcoming US-Russia presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The frequently changing summit is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a history of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a situation that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and intensify the war.
Meanwhile, the US leader has criticized openly Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders haven't seemed to move the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties supported by GOP senators. That legislation was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned the US president who then promoted the possible summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged really well," he said.
However the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"Once the issue of long-range mobility became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.
So, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, admitting that ending the war is proving more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.