‘An Alarming State of Affairs’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Supplies.

The ripple effects of a conflict being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy shipments through the key maritime chokepoint, supplies of kitchen fuel are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to cut menus, reduce operating times and in some cases close completely.

Social media is filled with video clips showing lines outside fuel suppliers across Indian metros and localities as concerns over fuel supplies grow. Restaurant kitchens appear the hardest struck: the biggest crunch is in food service establishments.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply cannot be found," says a representative of the National Restaurant Association of India.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or piped gas, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "A lot of restaurants have shut down - some in Delhi, many in the southern states. People are switching to solid fuels and electric cookers to keep their operations going."

Localized Effects

In a financial hub, local news say up to a fifth of hospitality businesses are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies dwindle. In the southern cities of Bangalore and Madras, some establishments say their cylinder inventory have shrunk with minimal reserves. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and nothing else - it is truly dismal. Commerce will take a hit," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.

Restaurant owners are seeking alternatives. "Menus are being curtailed, some are opening only for dinner and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that stoppages are changing as supplies wax and wane. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers report a surge in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are selling out quickly.

Authority's View

Yet, the government insists there is no shortage.

India has more than a vast number of domestic LPG users and spokespersons say cylinders are being redirected to households as conflict-related stress from the Middle East conflict ripple through energy markets.

About 60% of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about nine out of ten of those consignments pass through the key maritime route, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now largely blocked by the conflict.

The relevant department says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for home needs, raising domestic production by about a significant margin. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".

"A degree of anxious stocking and stockpiling has been caused by rumors. The standard supply timeline for domestic LPG remains about two-and-a-half days," says a government spokesperson.

Growing Panic

Now the concern is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a gas outlet. "The panic is real," the text reads.

According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be overstated.

India imports 90% of its oil. Around half of its crude oil imports - about 2.5 to 2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the waterway, largely from Middle Eastern nations.

Even if oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the deficit could be partly compensated for by higher imports of competitively priced oil from Russia, according to a sector expert.

Based on maritime intelligence and industry information, additional Russian crude imports could reach around 1-1.2 million barrels a day, reducing India's effective shortfall from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently in transit at sea in the Indian Ocean and, with only two major Asian economies as major buyers, those barrels remain a viable alternative," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The real vulnerability is LPG, experts note.

India consumes roughly one million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - most of it through the Strait.

Refineries can modify output to produce a bit more LPG, but even a limited rise would only lift domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be moderately reduced through diversification. Processed petroleum stocks remains largely sufficient. LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but erratic supply chains - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims opportunistic profiteering.

"Retailers are taking advantage of the situation - illegally trading canisters and selling them at a high cost. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being accumulated and auctioned off."

For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more pressing concern is simple: how to get the next refill.